Does it Matter If You Buy On An Up or Down Day?

Looking at SPY since inception, it doesn't seem to matter. If you wait long enough, the SPY rose above all prior highs. But let's look at the numbers:

Source: Barchart.com

The above table looked at the average continuously compounded rolling return for every day SPY was open since inception. And then I took the average gain or loss starting from day 1's close to the 1 month close, the 3 month, the 1 Year, etc. etc.. 

In THIS market, for THIS period buying at the high or low does NOT MATTER! Just buy and hold. This is the secret to Bogle's "Stay the Course".The actual data and calcs are available upon request. 

VGT VOO and Other ETFs

Here is a wonderful LinkedIn comment to my post recommending the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF VOO:

"Buy and hold the S&P 500 ETF" what foolish advice. Buy and hold VGT instead. VGT massively outperforms SPY and QQQ. Which sector can outpace the tech sector? Put your goddamn hand down that was a trick question."  https://bit.ly/4j52F7C

As they say on the internet: Let's see it:

Normalized performance where VOO 9/10/2010 start date = 1000

Data source: Barchart.com

Above is the VOO VGT normalized chart and YES, VGT, long term, is a great fund with fantastic returns. There's no argument about that but AT WHAT COST? Looking year-to-date, the loss in VTG is more than THREE times the loss of VOO and the 52 week gain is LESS than VOO! Two, three, five year and more gains are HIGHER but so is the RISK!

If you are a sophisticated investor maybe the 23% implied volatility/risk is ok for you but most of us can barely stomach the S&P's market risk with our nest egg. My S&P recommendation was for individual investors, with limited time, capital and no special access to information. So yes, market risk is about as far as I am willing to go.

Also, going for return makes no sense for investors who cannot delay access to funds when markets go bad. If you want return, why NOT buy SOXL with the second highest 10 year return, or go hog wild buying the TQQQ 3X ETF? And why stop there when you can buy the highest returning ETF in history-the bitcoin GBTC? NO, the one day, short-term and long-term risks are too great. 

Presidential Drawdowns

 Highs and Lows for Election to Election Drawdowns:

Link to barchart data:

PRES DRAWDOWNS.xlsx

Inflation vs Money Supply

Some are claiming the Fed is a failure and Money Supply is the cause of US inflation. Both claims are not backed up by any facts. This is a nice way of saying these claims are lies. And, when made by those who KNOW the facts, they are bad faith ideological bias! Lets see it:

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data normalized where 2/1/2015 = 1000.

These are records from the St. Louis Fed. 2015 to 2020 had some of the lowest inflation numbers in history! The data clearly show money supply rising 20%-30% or more. In that period, the red inflation line is just slightly elevated. 

THEN 2020 comes and so does the unprecedented COVID pandemic! The pandemic decimates the world supply chain raising prices. Money supply also rises as the Fed provides liquidity to the economy in stress. THEN Putin invades Ukraine, further crushing world supply chains (especially in food). 

Finally the money supply STOPS rising in in 2022! In fact, it falls and has only moderate growth to the present. Prices continue to rise but NOT due to rising money supply.

Money supply is a mirage propagated by Milton Friedman for ideological purposes and is used as a partisan excuse to reduce government benefits to workers and the general public. 

Note: The St. Louis Fed is an authoritative "primary source". Too many secondary sources showing different results are found all over the internet and have modifications, adjustments or fabrications-all to prove their ideological point. 

T

Stocks are FALLING!

Stocks are FALLING!

SPY = S&P 500 SPDR ETF

TQQQ = 3X Nasdaq 100 ETF

Performance normalized where 1/2/2020 =1000

Source: barchart.com

SPY and TQQQ bookends the stock market where SPY ="market" risk and TQQQ = just about the highest risk suitable for rational investors. With SPY down "only" 7% we see WHY you might NOT want to buy and hold TQQQ.

The question remains: how LOW can it go. 

*as of 3/10/2025 10:14 AM EDT

IF history is any guide (BIG IF), the market can go a long way down. 80% down in TQQQ would take us to $19 or so. A 40% break in SPY would take us to $368 or so. All we have is history and our only saving grace here is history also shows the market, with time, recovers.