As Covid new reported cases fall, it may be time to review the totality of the pandemic. Below are the "rankings" of per capita Covid cases and Covid deaths by state as of 10/13/2021. Read and weep:
© 2021 George Rahal.
This blog hopes to deliver interesting, valuable and timely Index, Market and Public Policy commentary. Focus is on answering questions, debunking myths, testing claims and helping people avoid financial disasters. NO AI IS USED IN THE CREATION OF THIS BLOG!
As Covid new reported cases fall, it may be time to review the totality of the pandemic. Below are the "rankings" of per capita Covid cases and Covid deaths by state as of 10/13/2021. Read and weep:
In the last days of September 2021, the Blomberg Commodity Index finally rose ABOVE its initial value of 100 set in 1991!
Here we go:
Sell in May and go away
Doesn't really work today!
Disclaimer: Posts are for education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Send request to gdrahal@gmail.com to follow this blog and for additional information.
© 2021 George Rahal.
The chart for December WTI Crude Oil is shown below:
It takes 10 years to show where crude oil WAS and where its GOING. The march to 100 may be mostly due to supply destruction on the heels of years of financial and demand destruction in the energy sector.
Even if demand does not completely return to pre-Covid levels, the supply imbalance, the time it will take to restore production and clear markets, is likely to press prices back above $100.
My contract of choice is the NYMEX December 2021 WTI Crude Oil futures which is trading at $70.71 as I write.
Disclaimer: Posts are for education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Request to gdrahal@gmail.com to follow this blog and additional information..
© 2021 George Rahal.
While alarming headlines on rising crime become prominent amidst autocratic politics, a look at the most recent actual FBI data may help sort out the claims and any confusion.
Here are the ten worst states for crime per 100,000 population:
Commodities continued rising in May with both major indexes up almost 3% for the month yet still below April's highs.
Fortunately the dismal outlook may have changed. Virus accelerated demand destruction, supply dislocations, price wars and geopolitics have given way to recovery, increased demand and supply scarcity-raising prices.
With vaccines readily available, social, economic and political attention is focused on the safe return to normal which can be directly measured by the percent of population fully vaccinated! Below is the latest, as of 5/22/2021, from Johns Hopkins University:
The two other views of the same data are presented below.
The bar chart makes state success rates perfectly clear. Longer bars are better! Go Maine!
Below are the latest total number of per capita confirmed cases of Covid by state as of 5/15/2021 from Johns Hopkins University.
California (ranked 19th) and New York (35th) governors are under fire. Texas (24th) and Florida (34th) governors are taking victory laps. But, where is the victory?
Here's the same data in table form:
After April's 8% commodity rally, one may say commodities are bullish. It might be a good time to see exactly where we, and commodities, stand long-term.
Today's 9/30/2021 Wall Street Journal front page headline proudly declares
WE'RE BAAACK! Implying all's well in the US economy and stimulus is not needed.
Sadly, buried in the 4/3/21 front page of the same paper and contradicting THAT headline is the fact that 8MM PEOPLE are STILL OUT OF WORK!
At the turn of the quarter, its time again to review my fund positions but this time with a new perspective, courtesy of Vanguard! Vanguard offers on their website a fund list* of cumulative returns that anyone can find here. Below are the top Vanguard Funds ranked in order by 3 year returns.
*Why use Vanguard as a baseline for fund returns? Well they are, in my opinion one of the only managers with a business model made for investors. Their mission is aligned with investors not fund owners or fund managers, their size lets them hire the best people, their fees are the lowest in the space (don't be fooled by phony zero commision newcomers).
Anyone worried about missing this years rally in commodities may want to look again. Outside of energy, the returns are decidedly mixed. The Bloomberg Commodity Index ended the first quarter up 6.6% yet down 2% in March and up only 3.1% from year-end 2019.
Victory laps by a few select states and their grandstanding governors offset by the dramatic fall of other governors deserve a current look at the state of Covid by state. Data collected by FactSet on the Covid death and case totals, as of this writing (3/20/2021), are presented below.
The total number of cases, per 100,000 population, range from a remarkable low of 2,026 cases in isolated Hawaii to a disastrous maximum of 13,265 cases in wide open North Dakota! The U.S. statewide average is 8,774 cases per 100,000. Oddly enough, the two states declaring victory, Florida and Texas, in red, have HIGHER per capita cases than the major targets of California and New York, in blue. The complete list of per capita cases can be seen here.
Truth be told, the case numbers for the four highlighted states rank near the average. Texas is ranked 27th in the country for per capita number of cases, Florida is 25th, New York 24th and California, where the Governor is facing impeachment due to Covid, is the best of the four at 22nd in the United States.
The number of per capita Covid deaths by states (51, including the District of Columbia) are not so sanguine. There is a wide disparity among states ranging from a remarkable low of 32 deaths per capita in West Virginia (followed closely by Arizona, Vermont and Ohio) to a high of 271 deaths per capita in New Jersey followed by Wyoming at 254. Of the four highlighted states California ranks with the worst at 49, behind Wyoming, at 244 deaths per capita. Florida ranks closely behind at 44th in the nation with 234 deaths per capita. Florida's Governor is campaigning on his Covid results. To fill out this story, both New York at 16th in the nation and Texas at 19th, are among the lower ranks of Covid deaths per capita.
One caveat for all these results is there are many factors other than population, such as density, social factors, economics, urbanization and more which affect Covid results. Here we see just one indicative measure.
Covid is a national medical emergency (hopefully today in retreat). Despite being a medical issue, politics has distorted not just the responses of individuals to medical directives but also the public perception of state by state Covid results. New York's low death rates and Florida's high death rates make little mark in the public eye.
T.D. Ameritrade's Ticker Tape publication posted an interesting story about "Assessing Your Personal Inflation Rate" which discusses prices of the CPI (Consumer Price Index) versus YPI (Your Personal Inflation). The difference between the two is one's individual spending basket versus the CPI basket. Below is an imperfect yet indicative comparison of the CPI basket and my own YPI:
Below is the reported annual price change by general category. A more detailed breakdown can be found clicking here.
When prices rise or fall we need to consider the source or cause of the price change. While some call every price change inflationary only a certain class of changes are due to inflation. Inflation is a general price increase. In essence, its a rising tide that lifts all ships and reduces the buying power of a given currency, in our case, the dollar. The price rises but the price of everything else rises too
A real price increase is when a certain good or service becomes scarce and that price rises as compared to other prices. The classic examples include an ounce of gold equals the cost of a man's suit or, classically, Ricardo's "barrel of wine" buys a "bolt of cloth" and vice versa! When buying power rises, when you need two barrels to buy the same bolt, that's a real price increase. For example, a Midwest drought may cause the price of grain to double but nearly everything else, like oil or rent, stays the same.
Not all price changes are inflation, not all price changes are "real". Today's 4% CPI feels like inflation since all of the economy is recovering from Covid but as in everything economic, only time will tell.
My earlier bond comparison "Bonds vs. The Stock Market" has led me to make a deeper look at major bond funds with varying maturities and varying credit quality ratings. Below are the results for the 10 largest bond funds in the world:
Results first, analysis follows:The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 6.4% in February 2021. Commodities have finally recovered their 2020 losses, posting small gains from year-end 2019.
Year-to-date, energy, up almost 20%, overwhelmed the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Industrial metals, softs and grains all were reaching for 10%. Precious metals lagged, down almost 8% year-to-date. Bitcoin, up 27%, the new "gold", is added for good measure.
Stars may be aligning for hard assets. The combination of Covid waning, more huge stimulus and ample Fed accommodation can spike demand-the punchbowl may not be leaving for quite some time. With interest rates rising the long-term commodity bear cycle may give way to signs of inflation - the definition of bullish commodity markets!
This post will go over the standardized month-end futures statement. This statement is generated every month-end by your commodity/futures broker.
starting cash = $0+ initial margin requirement $1,760+ commissions and fees $2.47- today's profit $96= $1,666.47
Investors need to know the most efficient use of capital. This post compares the three roads to a long-term position in the S&P 500 stock index: ETFs (essentially a stock), options and futures. The same position-three ways to get there-which one is best?
SPY is the "go to" analytic test as the most liquid investible index ETF (exchange traded fund). ATM calls are the most liquid, best priced, options. Year 2020 is an ideal test year for extreme market conditions.
The SPY and futures contract are buy and hold positions subject to margin calls. The option is not subject to margin calls. Returns are calculated on the initial margin, the maximum and average margin for the calendar year 2020.
- SPY - you cannot buy an index but you CAN buy an ETF! The easiest way to buy the S&P 500 index is to buy SPY. SPY trades and is margined as a stock but trades identically to the actual index. The drawback is the $32,186 cost for 100 shares. Most brokers would only require 33% margin or so and that is why initial cost is $10K+.
- SPY 12/31/2020 321 ATM Call - The SPY closed 2019 at 321.86, the 321 strike price was that day's ATM call. The ATM is the most liquid, best-priced option. The leverage or low $2,180 cost to control 100 shares of SPY is cited as the primary justification for buying options.
- Micro S&P500 March 2021 ESH21 Futures Contract - The Micro futures contract is a vehicle for smaller investors. The higher leverage, minimal $1,003 initial futures margin requirement is cited as a justification for purchasing futures.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 2.6% in January 2021. A decent start for the new year. Only three of the 16 major commodity futures markets shown here were down at month-end.
This post will compare the winner's margin of victory in U.S. Presidential elections since 1824* (Winners Margin) to the return of the Dow Jones Industrial Average** (DJIA) for the winner's term, i.e. the next four years. The goal is to see if there is any correlation between the "division" in the nation's electorate and the subsequent stock market return.
Not since the Confederacy have we had open insurrection and today a DHS alert says this is a risk. Just how divided is the country today?
My prior post, E Pluribus Unum, indicates 2020 Presidential election results are NOT highly divisive. That same post asked if the 50-50 split in the Senate and the 221-211 split in the House of Representatives indicate historic divisions in Congress. This post will try to answer this question by looking at historical Congressional party splits.
Wikipedia's article on this subject, Party divisions of United States Congresses, presents historical data in length. Below is a graphic from this article showing Congressional party control since 1855 (click for expanded view):
This post compares the general vote difference or margin (and therefore the nation's divide) of Presidential elections from 1824* to 2020. Red bars show the five elections where the winner LOST the popular vote!
For instance, in 2020, Biden received 4.5% more votes than Trump. In 2016, Clinton received 2.2% more votes than Trump, and she lost the electoral college! In 1844, James K. Polk beat Henry Clay by only 1.5%.
The lower the win percentage or margin, the greater the "divide". Of the 50 elections listed, 16 of them were "closer" than 4.5% implying for over 60 years of the republic, the nation was MORE divided than today!
The average election margin is 9%. The biggest win (excepting earlier unopposed elections) was the 30% margin of Calvin Coolidge over John W. Davis in 1924.
CLOSEST ELECTIONS SINCE 1824:
Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors.