Thursday, October 14, 2021

Covid Deaths and Cases Per 100,000 Population

As Covid new reported cases fall, it may be time to review the totality of the pandemic. Below are the "rankings" of per capita Covid cases and Covid deaths by state as of 10/13/2021. Read and weep:


















Of the four most populous states, red Texas and Florida cases are significantly worse than blue California and New York.





In per capita deaths, New York ranks lower (46th at 287 per 100K) than Florida (41st at 267) and Texas (32nd at 235) and California's surprising high ranking (16th at 178).

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Contact gdrahal@outlook.com for additional information.. 
© 2021 George Rahal.





















Wednesday, October 6, 2021

Third Quarter 2021 Commodity Index Review


In the last days of September 2021, the Blomberg Commodity Index finally rose ABOVE its initial value of 100 set in 1991!

Friday, July 2, 2021

3 Months In The Life - Nasdaq 100 Futures

 Here we go:


3 month rally in the Nasdaq 100 futures contract.



Source: TDAmeritrade.com ThinkorSwim charts

Sell in May and go away

Doesn't really work today!


Disclaimer: Posts are for education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Send request to gdrahal@gmail.com to follow this blog and for additional information. 

© 2021 George Rahal.


Friday, June 25, 2021

The March to 100

 The chart for December WTI Crude Oil is shown below:


Source: thinkorswim on tdameritrade.com

It takes 10 years to show where crude oil WAS and where its GOING. The march to 100 may be mostly due to supply destruction on the heels of years of financial and demand destruction in the energy sector. 


Source: ARC Energy Research

Even if demand does not completely return to pre-Covid levels, the supply imbalance, the time it will take to restore production and clear markets, is likely to press prices back above $100.  

My contract of choice is the NYMEX December 2021 WTI Crude Oil futures which is trading at $70.71 as I write.

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Request to gdrahal@gmail.com to follow this blog and additional information.. 
© 2021 George Rahal.


Thursday, June 24, 2021

Crime Rate per 100,000 Population by State

While alarming headlines on rising crime become prominent amidst autocratic politics, a look at the most recent actual FBI data may help sort out the claims and any confusion. 

Here are the ten worst states for crime per 100,000 population:


Lets not nitpick. Looking at the most populous states, here's how they rank:


Source:https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/tables/table-5


Conclusions:

Today's crime knows no politics. Who knew Alaska and New Mexico had the worst crime rates in the nation? The South, with 7 out of 10 of the worst, has its full share of bad crime. 

The most populous states have higher crime rates than the national average EXCEPT FOR NY, PA, OH and GA. Beware politician claims to the contrary!

Why this matters?  While a markets blog, good government and accurate PERCEPTIONS, are essential to proper functioning of the markets. With the rise of autocratic politicians (read Florida and Texas) we all can use a good dose of factual understanding. 

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Note my excel data spreadsheets are available upon request. Send request to gdrahal@gmail.com to follow this blog and additional information.. 
© 2021 George Rahal.







Monday, May 31, 2021

Commodities Rise in May

Commodities continued rising in May with both major indexes up almost 3% for the month yet still below April's highs.


Year to date, the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the S&P Dow GSCI are up 17% and 23%, respectively. The gains were broad based. Click here to see detailed returns.

Fortunately the dismal outlook may have changed. Virus accelerated demand destruction, supply dislocations, price wars and geopolitics have given way to recovery, increased demand and supply scarcity-raising prices.

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Note my excel data spreadsheets are available upon request. Send request to gdrahal@gmail.com to follow this blog and additional information.. 
© 2021 George Rahal.

Sunday, May 23, 2021

Vaccinations by State

With vaccines readily available, social, economic and political attention is focused on the safe return to normal which can be directly measured by the percent of population fully vaccinated!  Below is the latest, as of 5/22/2021, from Johns Hopkins University:


Colorful view of vaccinations by state.


The two other views of the same data are presented below. 

Barchart

The bar chart makes state success rates perfectly clear. Longer bars are better! Go Maine!

Longer bars represent higher vax rates.

Note Florida and Texas are in the lower half of the United States. Needless to say, California, New York and, especially, New Jersey?!, rank in the upper to near highest in the percent of population vaccinated. The numerical table, as of 5/22/2021, is presented below.

Numerical Table


State success rates ranked.


Conclusion

The national average today is 39%! Not nearly enough to give us the mythical herd immunity that will protect us all. But, sadly, vaccination rates are falling.

In JHU's latest data, TX ranks 40th in the nation while FL is 34th and both are below the national average. CA at 19th, NY 11th and NJ 6th (???!) are way above the national average. 

Government by the people has a responsibility to care for the people. One can wonder how perception and reality can vary so much. 

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Note my excel data spreadsheets are available upon request. Send request to gdrahal@gmail.com for data and/or to follow this blog. 
© 2021 George Rahal.







 













Sunday, May 16, 2021

Covid Revisited

Below are the latest total number of per capita confirmed cases of Covid by state as of 5/15/2021 from Johns Hopkins University

California (ranked 19th) and New York (35th) governors are under fire. Texas (24th) and Florida (34th) governors are taking victory laps. But, where is the victory?

Graphical Representation of Covid cases by state.

Shorter bars are better.

Here's the same data in table form:

Table of per capita Covid confirmed cases by state


Disclaimer: Posts are for education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Send request to gdrahal@gmail.com to follow this blog. 
© 2021 George Rahal.














Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Colonial Pipeline and the Indexes

As an indexer I hardly ever say trading is fun but today may be an exception. Rarely are markets faced with a very likely short-lived binary contained emergency.  Below are four exciting thinkorswim year-to-date chart screenshots for the micro Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 futures contracts. 

The Indexes


Fibs showing drawdown of the Dow 30.




Symbol MYMM21, Micro Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average June 2021 futures down* 25% from its intraday all-time high three days ago.

Fibs of the S&P500






Symbol MESM21, Micro S&P 500 June 2021 Index futures contract is down* about 25% from its all-time high three days ago.

Fibs of the Nasdaq 100





















Symbol MNQM21, Micro Nasdaq 100 Index June 2021 futures contract is down* about 60% from its all-time high ten days ago.

Fibs of the Russell 2000.




And, symbol M2KM21, Micro Russell 2000 June 2021 index futures contract is down* 50% from it all time high 43 days ago!

*Note: these are not absolute down moves, these are the drawdowns measured against the range of the yearly high minus the yearly low. In other words, these measure how much the market has given up its move for the year-to-date. 100% down would take the market back to its yearly low.

These four ARE the major "broad" indexes that all money managers have such a hard time trying to beat. The last three days, as do all large breaks, present a great opportunity for active managers to beat the indexes. But how significant IS this sharp market break?

While the Dow and S&P just take us back to the second week in April (that is how large the rally WAS) the much more volatile Nasdaq is now at levels seen as far back as the second week of January! Same with the Russell 2000 index. The January 2021 highs are about where these two indexes are trading as I write. Those who thought they missed the move, well, they didn't. 

Colonial Pipeline


What largely precipitated this break is the Colonial gasoline pipeline interruption. When I was an energy trader, we used to darkly opine that a three day blackout in electricity or gas supply would shut down a city or a state.  The headline pictures of today's gas lines throughout the east cost are tribute to that. But what is also true is that as quickly as this went sideways is how quickly this can go back up! 

The pipeline interruption may be very short lived. I mean HOW incompetent ARE the IT guys and managers at Colonial? Darkside itself made a conciliatory statement. The pipe can be back even before the weekend and, if so, my bet (and I'm not really a betting guy) is market breaks will be very short lived as well.

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Please request to follow this blog by email to gdrahal@gmail.com.

© 2021 George Rahal.

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Commodity Time Machine - April 2021

After April's 8% commodity rally, one may say commodities are bullish. It might be a good time to see exactly where we, and commodities, stand long-term. 

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Friday, April 30, 2021

GDP Recovery or 8MM Out of Work -- Which is it?

 Today's 9/30/2021 Wall Street Journal front page headline proudly declares 

Wall St Journal implying stimulus is not needed.


WE'RE BAAACK! Implying all's well in the US economy and stimulus is not needed.

Sadly, buried in the 4/3/21 front page of the same paper and contradicting THAT headline is the fact that 8MM PEOPLE are STILL OUT OF WORK!


Wall St Journal reporting stimulus is sorely needed.

I don't know how to reconcile the two reports without being cynical or accusatory.

Disclaimer: Posts are for entertainment & education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. To follow this blog email FOLLOW to VistaMktResearch@gmail.com.

© 2021 George Rahal.


Monday, April 12, 2021

Top Mutual Funds - Ranked for Persistence

At the turn of the quarter, its time again to review my fund positions but this time with a new perspective, courtesy of Vanguard! Vanguard offers on their website a fund list* of cumulative returns that anyone can find here. Below are the top Vanguard Funds ranked in order by 3 year returns.

Vanguard Fund 3 Year Rankings as of 3/31/2021

Vanguard funds are ranked in order of 3 year cumulative returns.

Why the 3 year baseline? It includes 2018's down year, 2019's up year and the wild ride of 2020 to present. 

Results

How interesting that one fund, the U. S. Growth Fund, comes in number ONE for the 3, 5 and 10 year periods. It may or may not be Vanguard's best equity fund but someone has to be number one! Note that the TOP RANK DID NOT PERSIST for the 1 year, 3 month nor 1 month period. In fact, This was the WORST fund, ranked 37 out of 37, for the 3 month period and the second worst fund for the month of March! 14 Funds had HIGHER average ranks than U. S. Growth. 

The fund with the HIGHEST average ranking, at 11.3, was Diversified Equity. This too was in the lower half of funds for the 2021 rankings. The top funds for the first quarter look very different:

Vanguard funds ranked by cumulative return.


















All 3 mo. 2021 winners were highly ranked for the 1 year period (it may be the reason for the 1 yr. ranking) but all ranked in the lower half for prior periods. The best average ranking for all periods was the Extended Market Index, which likewise, ranked at the bottom for 1 month!

Conclusion


Its like you can't win trying to pick or guess which fund to buy. Let's look at my benchmark, as usual, the flagship Vanguard 500 Index Fund:

Vanguard 500 Index fund cumulative return rankings.


With a 14.2 batting average (in the top third or so) and a no worse than 26 ranking, it has more persistence than most and may be as good as any. 

*Why Vanguard? Scale, fees and a business model aligned with the investor. 
This post reports Vanguard's universe of 53 equity funds' cumulative returns for 1 mo., 3mo., 1 yr., 3 yr., 5yr and 10 year periods. Only 37 funds have 10 year periods, so I limited ranking to those funds. Caveat's include the following: no actual returns are shown and the distribution of returns can make rankings misleading, especially if they are bunched, then, the rankings within the bunch have very little meaning. Also, Vanguard includes select funds in their list, there are many others in and out of Vanguard. Fund composition and styles can change while their names may not. This makes period to period comparisons difficult or invalid. Finally, most funds have overlapping positions, especially to the 500 Index fund, and their returns may not be distinct. 

Source: Vanguard.com

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Please follow this blog by email.

© 2021 George Rahal.








 










*Why use Vanguard as a baseline for fund returns? Well they are, in my opinion one of the only managers with a business model made for investors. Their mission is aligned with investors not fund owners or fund managers, their size lets them hire the best people, their fees are the lowest in the space (don't be fooled by phony zero commision newcomers). 

Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Commodity Returns First Quarter 2021

Anyone worried about missing this years rally in commodities may want to look again. Outside of energy, the returns are decidedly mixed. The Bloomberg Commodity Index ended the first quarter up 6.6% yet down 2% in March and up only 3.1% from year-end 2019.

Sunday, March 21, 2021

Covid Cases and Deaths

Victory laps by a few select states and their grandstanding governors offset by the dramatic fall of other governors deserve a current look at the state of Covid by state. Data collected by FactSet on the Covid death and case totals, as of this writing (3/20/2021), are presented below. 

Cases per 100,000

Factset total number of cases per 100,000 population by state.
Higher bars are worse.

The total number of cases, per 100,000 population, range from a remarkable low of 2,026 cases in isolated Hawaii to a disastrous maximum of 13,265 cases in wide open North Dakota! The U.S. statewide average is 8,774 cases per 100,000. Oddly enough, the two states declaring victory, Florida and Texas, in red, have HIGHER per capita cases than the major targets of California and New York, in blue.  The complete list of per capita cases can be seen here

Truth be told, the case numbers for the four highlighted states rank near the average. Texas is ranked 27th in the country for per capita number of cases, Florida is 25th, New York 24th and California, where the Governor is facing impeachment due to Covid, is the best of the four at 22nd in the United States.

Deaths per 100,000

Factset total number of Covid deaths per 100,000 population by state.
Higher bars are worse.

The number of per capita Covid deaths by states (51, including the District of Columbia) are not so sanguine. There is a wide disparity among states ranging from a remarkable low of 32 deaths per capita in West Virginia (followed closely by Arizona, Vermont and Ohio) to a high of 271 deaths per capita in New Jersey followed by Wyoming at 254.  Of the four highlighted states California ranks with the worst at 49, behind Wyoming, at 244 deaths per capita. Florida ranks closely behind at 44th in the nation with 234 deaths per capita. Florida's Governor is campaigning on his Covid results. To fill out this story, both New York at 16th in the nation and Texas at 19th, are among the lower ranks of Covid deaths per capita.

One caveat for all these results is there are many factors other than population, such as density, social factors, economics, urbanization and more which affect Covid results. Here we see just one indicative measure.  

Conclusion

Covid is a national medical emergency (hopefully today in retreat). Despite being a medical issue, politics has distorted not just the responses of individuals to medical directives but also the public perception of state by state Covid results. New York's low death rates and Florida's high death rates make little mark in the public eye.

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Please follow this blog by email.

© 2021 George Rahal.


Tuesday, March 16, 2021

YPI vs CPI, Real Price Increases vs Inflation

CPI versus YPI

T.D. Ameritrade's Ticker Tape publication posted an interesting story about "Assessing Your Personal Inflation Rate"  which discusses prices of the CPI (Consumer Price Index) versus YPI (Your Personal Inflation). The difference between the two is one's individual spending basket versus the CPI basket. Below is an imperfect yet indicative comparison of the CPI basket and my own YPI:


Personal versus the official consumer price index.

In our household, we spend a little less on energy, food, meds, and shelter but more on purchases and transport-we live close to stores and we have grands. All in all, we match up pretty close to the government breakdown of personal expenses. Your mileage may vary. 

CPI Up 0.4% In February 2021

Below is the reported annual price change by general category. A more detailed breakdown can be found clicking here


Chart found on CPI Home


Inflation versus Real Price Change

When prices rise or fall we need to consider the source or cause of the price change. While some call every price change inflationary only a certain class of changes are due to inflation.  Inflation is a general price increase. In essence, its a rising tide that lifts all ships and reduces the buying power of a given currency, in our case, the dollar. The price rises but the price of everything else rises too

A real price increase is when a certain good or service becomes scarce and that price rises as compared to other prices. The classic examples include an ounce of gold equals the cost of a man's suit or, classically, Ricardo's "barrel of wine" buys a "bolt of cloth" and vice versa!  When buying power rises, when you need two barrels to buy the same bolt, that's a real price increase. For example, a Midwest drought may cause the price of grain to double but nearly everything else, like oil or rent, stays the same. 

Not all price changes are inflation, not all price changes are "real". Today's 4% CPI feels like inflation since all of the economy is recovering from Covid but as in everything economic, only time will tell.

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Please follow this blog by email.

© 2021 Vista Market Research.



Thursday, March 4, 2021

Bonds versus Bonds

My earlier bond comparison "Bonds vs. The Stock Market" has led me to make a deeper look at major bond funds with varying maturities and varying credit quality ratings. Below are the results for the 10 largest bond funds in the world: 

Results first, analysis follows: 


Methodology


The method here is fairness to the small individual investor and NOT to the fund managers. Yes, there are hundreds of bond funds offered by dozens of companies but few will know these companies unless they are sold to you-a costly proposition. In the end bond funds differ only in expenses, credit quality and duration (a fancy name for time to maturity).  So I picked the TEN LARGEST funds I could find on Yahoo Finance and from searching.

All the numbers here can be found by typing the fund symbol in Yahoo finance, including daily prices since inception. If you do this, be sure to use the "Adjusted Close". This includes the interest payouts of the funds over time. 

Five of the ten are Vanguard funds. Vanguard manages over $800 Billion of the $1.2 Trillion held by the ten largest funds. PIMCO had the reputation as the largest bond fund manager in the world and today is far from it. 

Results


The ten largest bond funds had an average yield of 2.2% but with rates rising in 2021 are down 2% year-to-date (as of 3/3/2021). That is, they already lost all their income for the year plus another 2 points. Duration averages 5 years and is a measure of the gain or loss a fund is likely to have for every 1% change in interest rates (in this case 5% down in price for every 1% rise in interest rates). The average credit rating for these funds are a very good AA. 

Note, as expected, the short term funds with the shortest durations have the best year-to-date returns. PIMCO has excelled here but note the low BBB average credit quality combined with the shortest 1.9 year duration. 

Conclusion


Bond funds are NOT bonds. Bond prices fluctuate prior to their maturity and, if they don't go bankrupt, will eventually mature and return your capital regardless of interest rates. As a former bond trader I could never see the value of bond funds. 

Funds never mature. A bond fund always is buying new bonds to replace those it matures and a large portion of the bond portfolio will always be subject to interest rates.
 
For those who really want to preserve capital, the shortest term bond funds, will do best. Money market funds and CDs will do better. Bank CDs, which pay more than money markets, are usually non-negotiable, you cannot get your money early barring a penalty. Money markets have the lowest rates.

The trade offs are always the same, the safer and shorter the bond, the lower the yield. 

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Please follow this blog by email.

© 2021 Vista Market Research.

















Sunday, February 28, 2021

Commodity Returns- February 2021

The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 6.4% in February 2021. Commodities have finally recovered their 2020 losses, posting small gains from year-end 2019. 

monthly commodity returns
Monthly = Bloomberg Commodity Index Excess Returns (BCOM)
Cumulative = Cumulative BCOM return since start of 2020

commodity sector returns
Source: Bloomberg.com

Year-to-date, energy, up almost 20%, overwhelmed the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Industrial metals, softs and grains all were reaching for 10%. Precious metals lagged, down almost 8% year-to-date. Bitcoin, up 27%, the new "gold", is added for good measure.

Stars may be aligning for hard assets. The combination of Covid waning, more huge stimulus and ample Fed accommodation can spike demand-the punchbowl may not be leaving for quite some time. With interest rates rising the long-term commodity bear cycle may give way to signs of inflation - the definition of bullish commodity markets!

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Please follow this blog by email.

© 2021 Vista Market Research.





Tuesday, February 23, 2021

How to Read a Month-End Futures Statement

This post will go over the standardized month-end futures statement. This statement is generated every month-end by your commodity/futures broker.

While similar to the daily equity run (see prior post How to Read a Futures Statement), the month-end statement is different, it has no trade prices! Both the month-end and daily statements are needed to have a complete picture of one's futures account. 

The following is the actual redacted "Monthly statement" for my recently opened small account at T. D. Ameritrade. 

Month-end futures account




The statement starts with the standard header: broker name, your name, address, account number, etc. It then continues with two sections. The first, YOUR ACITVITY THIS MONTH, is a ledger of the cash debits and credits to your futures account. 

  • Line 1 on 1/7/21 shows an opening trade for the purchase of one MNQH21 futures contract charging fees and  commissions totaling $2.47. NO TRADE PRICE IS SHOWN. 

The purchase and sales prices are NOT on monthly statements, they are only on your confirmations or daily statements. This can sometimes be confusing since you need BOTH the daily and monthly statements to understand the account. 

Opening trades initiate or "open" positions, either long or short. Closing trades "close" positions and create a profit or loss depending upon the opening and closing prices. Every trade is opening or closing except for when positions, as in deliverable commodities, are closed by deliveries. Longs deliver and shorts receive (i.e. buyers receive 5000 bushels of wheat or sellers deliver them).

  • Line 2 is another opening trade and another fee and commission debit. 
  • Line 3 shows the credit for a transfer from my TDA equity account to meet my initial margin call. 
  • Lines 4 and 5 show more cash transfers from my equity to futures account.
  • Line 6 on 1/13/21 shows a SWEEP or transfer OUT of my futures into my equity account. This is because my positions increased in value and created a surplus or margin excess. This broker automatically keeps futures accounts in balance with automatic sweeps. 
  • Line 7 and 8 are more withdrawals from futures to equity.
  • Line 9  on 1/28/21 shows a closed 'P&L', that is a profit or loss on a closed trade. Here 1 MNQH21 was closed out for a profit of $235, thus the credit. 
  • Line 10 shows the fees and commissions on the 1/28 MNQ closing trade. 
  • Line 11 shows the same for the closed MES position except this was a loss or debit of $422.50.
  • Line 12 shows the MES fees and commissions debit.
  • Line 12 shows the cash being swept out of the futures account.
  • Line 13 shows an automatic transfer into my futures account. 

The second section is the summary of the account's cash activity. 

  • Line 1 of this section shows my zero starting balance.
  • Line 3 shows the zero ending balance (since there were no positions in the account at month end).
  • The remaining lines sum up the month's P&Ls, commissions and fees. 

With any luck, my account will show gains as the year continues. 

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Please follow this blog by email.





Bond Funds vs The Stock Market

A long time friend wants to be OUT of the stock market and needs to know where to put his money now. He has two bond funds VFIDX and PAGNX and wants to know how they will move if the market declines.  Here we go: 























VFINX = Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares
VFIDX = Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment -Grade Fund Admiral Shares
PAGNX = PIMCO GNMA and Government Securities Fund Class A Net Asset Value
Source: Yahoo Finance

Monday, February 15, 2021

How to Read a Futures Statement

In my career as a futures broker I've had many clients, sophisticated and otherwise, ask how to read their statements. This post will go over the standardized daily futures statement. NOTE: this should be read with my "How to Read a Month-End" futures statement post for a complete picture of your futures account. 

Since you don't actually buy the underlying, the statement is different than your stock and bond confirmation. A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell the commodity or other instrument at a specific time in the future. 

The following is the actual redacted "daily statement" for my new small account at T. D. Ameritrade


Daily futures equity run

Note, this statement is commonly called a daily equity run and typically is either emailed or available for download from your futures broker. 

Lets review what's on here. Of course, your brokerage firm (technically a "futures commission merchant") name and address and phone number are on the top. This is followed by the customer name, address, date and account number. The next section shows the "CONFIRMATION" of all my trades for that day. 

  • Line 1 says on 1/7/21 I bought 1 March 2021 Micro Nasdaq Index contract (symbol MNQH21, not shown) at the price of 12880. 
  • Line 2 says the LTD, or last trade date for this March contract, is 3/19/2021 and the commission I paid was $2.25.  
  • Line 3 shows my average price for all my positions in this contract is 12880 and the exchange fee for this trade is $0.20.
  • Line 4 is the NFA (National Futures Association) fee, $0.02
  • Line 5 is the total commissions and fees of $2.47.

The next section shows my "OPEN POSITIONS", or everything I own in my futures account. 

  • Line 1 says I am "LONG" (I bought) the contract at 12880. The DEBIT/CREDIT shows my profit at the end of the day for this position was $96.
  • Line 2 repeats the LTD and shows the closing price for the statement date was 12,928 and my profit for all my positions was $96.
  • Line 3 just shows the average cost for all my positions (the one) was the same 12880.

Note that for this specific contract, MNQH21, 1 point = $2. Each separate commodity/futures contract has its own dollar multiple defined by the contract specifications. Thus, since the purchase was at 12880 and the closing price was 12928, the index rose 48 points which equaled 48 x $2 = a $96 gain.  

Of course, if the index FELL the account would LOSE $2 per point. 

The next section "MARGIN CALLS AND AGING" shows new and existing margin calls, if any. 

This day's margin call equals: 

starting cash = $0 
+ initial margin requirement $1,760 
+ commissions and fees $2.47 
- today's profit $96 
= $1,666.47

The broker then calls the customer and asks for a deposit of $1,666.47? 
No. 
In practice your broker would not execute your trade if you didn't have enough money in a cash account to cover the initial margin requirement. In fact, most brokers, like mine, will automatically withdraw from your cash account (or add any excess) to meet your futures margin requirements. Some will even have minimum starting balances of $25,000 or more.

Futures exchanges set margin requirements based on the risk they measure (an art if there ever was one) for holding the position. Today's margin for MNQH21 is $1,760. The "notional" value of the MNQ contract is 12928 x $2 = $25,856. So the margin, today, equals $1760/25836 = 6.8% of the contract value. In essence the exchange is betting the index will not fall more than 880 points in one day. In other words, less than $1800 controls $26,000 of the index. 

The press made a big ado when equity margin requirements ballooned for accounts wildly trading Gamestop. 

The last section is your daily cash statement. This is mostly self-explanatory.

  • Line 7 "OPEN TRADE EQUITY" (OTE) is the total profit or loss in the account, 
  • Line 8 "TOTAL EQUITY" (TE) = the sum of the ending balance + OTE
  • Line 9 "ACCOUNT VALUE AT MARKET" is the same as TE for simple accounts. 
  • Line 11 "MAINTENANCE MARGIN REQUIREMENT"  is the value, set by the exchange, your account can fall to without having a margin call. In most cases investors should just forget this. Just keep your account above initial margin or stop playing the game. 
  • Line 12 "MARGIN DEFICIT" shows the amount of my unmet call for that day. Most brokers will automatically transfer this amount from your cash account or give you 1 or 2 days to make a transfer. If you don't meet your margin call, your broker will liquidate your account and put you on the bad girl or bad boy list. 

My next post, Part 2, will show how to read the slightly different "month-end" futures statement. 

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Please follow this blog by email.




Saturday, February 13, 2021

Stocks versus Options versus Futures

Investors need to know the most efficient use of capital. This post compares the three roads to a long-term position in the S&P 500 stock index: ETFs (essentially a stock), options and futures. The same position-three ways to get there-which one is best? 


SPY = S&P 500 ETF and represents the S&P Micro March 2021 futures contract.
ATM Call = SPY 12/31/2020 321 Call
Source: Yahoo.com, TDA Thinkorswim, Black Scholes Option Model

This post compares the return of the S&P 500 ETF, symbol SPY, and 1 year S&P futures contract, which mirror the index, to the one year at-the-money (ATM) SPY call option. 

SPY is the "go to" analytic test as the most liquid investible index ETF (exchange traded fund). ATM calls are the most liquid, best priced, options. Year 2020 is an ideal test year for extreme market conditions.

The SPY and futures contract are buy and hold positions subject to margin calls. The option is not subject to margin calls. Returns are calculated on the initial margin, the maximum and average margin for the calendar year 2020.

The justification for purchase of each instrument can be stated as follows:
  • SPY - you cannot buy an index but you CAN buy an ETF! The easiest way to buy the S&P 500 index is to buy SPY. SPY trades and is margined as a stock but trades identically to the actual index. The drawback is the $32,186 cost for 100 shares. Most brokers would only require 33% margin or so and that is why initial cost is $10K+.
  • SPY 12/31/2020 321 ATM Call - The SPY closed 2019 at 321.86, the 321 strike price was that day's ATM call. The ATM is the most liquid, best-priced option. The leverage or low $2,180 cost to control 100 shares of SPY is cited as the primary justification for buying options.
  • Micro S&P500 March 2021 ESH21 Futures Contract - The Micro futures contract is a vehicle for smaller investors. The higher leverage, minimal $1,003 initial futures margin requirement is cited as a justification for purchasing futures. 


Results

While notional values may differ, 2020 returns on initial cash favor futures. The low return on total cash was a result of the deep decline of index prices/bear market in March. The quick rise of indexes/bull market would have returned the additional cash when indexes recovered from their decline. Option returns split a difference between futures returns. Both dwarfed the returns of holding the ETF. This result, as all results, is just one historical data point and may not be indicative of future results.

General Conclusions
  • In a bull market, futures would dwarf the returns of stocks and options. 
  • In an unchanged market, the stock and futures would end unchanged and the options would expire worthless, a total loss. 
  • In a bear market, the stock may do best while futures would incur margin calls and the options would expire worthless, again, for a total loss. 
Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors. Please follow this blog by email.

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

E Pluribus Unum II - Elections and Markets

This post will compare the winner's margin of victory in U.S. Presidential elections since 1824* (Winners Margin) to the return of the Dow Jones Industrial Average** (DJIA) for the winner's term, i.e. the next four years. The goal is to see if there is any correlation between the "division" in the nation's electorate and the subsequent stock market return. 





*Presidential election popular vote data starts with 1824.
**The DJIA was not created until 1896. Research showing implied data is used for this illustration. 





Red indicates winner lost the general election.
Results:
  • A .23 correlation coefficient indicates a positive yet small correlation between winner's margin and subsequent four year stock market performance. 
  • The ten highly divided elections (winner's margin under 2%) had mixed high and low stock performance. 
  • Four of the five elections where winners LOST the general election had negative subsequent returns. 
  • The major exception is 2016 and the +50% four year gain.

Conclusion:

Despite all the potential data problems and the use of equity returns as proxy for economic prosperity, the Republic appears to do better when Presidential elections are won by larger margins. Unity may beget value. 







Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Deo Vindice

Not since the Confederacy have we had open insurrection and today a DHS alert says this is a risk. Just how divided is the country today? 

My prior post, E Pluribus Unum, indicates 2020 Presidential election results are NOT highly divisive. That same post asked if the 50-50 split in the Senate and the 221-211 split in the House of Representatives indicate historic divisions in Congress. This post will try to answer this question by looking at historical Congressional party splits. 

Wikipedia's article on this subject, Party divisions of United States Congresses, presents historical data in length. Below is a graphic from this article showing Congressional party control since 1855 (click for expanded view):

Blue = Democrat 
Red = Republican 
Upper graph = Percent of Senate Seats 
Lower graph = Percent of House Seats

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

E Pluribus Unum

This post compares the general vote difference or margin (and therefore the nation's divide) of Presidential elections from 1824* to 2020. Red bars show the five elections where the winner LOST the popular vote! 

Lower bars = more division
Red=Winner loses general election
Source: CQGuide to U.S. Elections, data starts 1824 

For instance, in 2020, Biden received 4.5% more votes than Trump. In 2016, Clinton received 2.2% more votes than Trump, and she lost the electoral college! In 1844, James K. Polk beat Henry Clay by only 1.5%. 

The lower the win percentage or margin, the greater the "divide".  Of the 50 elections listed, 16 of them were "closer"  than 4.5% implying for over 60 years of the republic, the nation was MORE divided than today!

The average election margin is 9%. The biggest win (excepting earlier unopposed elections) was the 30% margin of Calvin Coolidge over John W. Davis in 1924. 

CLOSEST ELECTIONS SINCE 1824: 

ELECTION DIVIDE SINCE 1824:


PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL VOTE TALLIES SINCE 1824:


In sum, despite media claims to the contrary, the general vote tallies do not support claims of extreme divide. The parity in Congress, the 50-50 Senate and 222-211 House, a topic for another post, apparently does! If markets like divided government, the data, as is usual with markets, is decidedly mixed. 

Feel free to post comments.

Disclaimer: Posts are for education only and not investment advice, may be subject to change without notice, and, while prepared with care, may be subject to omissions and errors.