Vista Commodity Basket up 7% Q1 2025

The Vista Commodity basket of 15 diversified long-dated commodity futures contracts rose 7% in the first quarter of 2025. While April's tariff tantrum tanked stocks and the commodity ETFs, the long-dated Vista basket fared a little better falling only to unchanged for the year. 

Normalized ccrors where 12/29/2023 = 1000

VISTA =  Vista Commodity Basket

SPY = SPDR S&P 500 ETF

DJP = Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF

GSG = S&P GSCI Commodity Index ETF

Source: Barchart.com

Rollng Returns as of 3/31/2025.

The long-term chart shows how the Vista basket recovers to new all-time highs while the major commodity index ETFs have barely broken even for the 16 year period and still have far to go to make their 2010 highs. 

Normalized commodity ETF performance where 4/30/2009, the Vista Basket inception date, = 1000.

2025's commods were propelled by gold's 20% gain in the first quarter. Note, the table below has a 4/12/2025 end date. 

Source:Barchart.com

While commodities LOOKED healthy, tariff threats can take a major toll on these and all markets. The world was in an excellent position for outsize returns in nearly all markets. Tariff threats are actually an ex-ante or externality not central to the real economy, at least not YET central. If they become real, all bets are off and the world of unintended consequences rears its ugly head. EVEN IF, all threats are rescinded, the economics may not recover for a long time as the rule of law, confidence and trust in Pax Americana may be broken for four or more years. 

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